The Gaza war is over, at least for now. But whether the ceasefire can hold – eventually bringing security, prosperity, and peace to Israelis and Palestinians – might hinge on a strongman leader who is wily, fiercely nationalistic, and used to getting what he wants.
And it’s not Donald Trump.
Nor is it Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – essential though he, too, will be if the truce is to be consolidated, humanitarian relief delivered, reconstruction begun, and a new political arrangement installed.
Why We Wrote This
If the Israeli army withdraws from Gaza, who will ensure law and order there? Only Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has the trust of Hamas and a strong enough military. How far will he go to help turn the ceasefire into lasting peace?
It is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the increasingly authoritarian Islamist politician who has ruled Turkey for the past 22 years.
A staunch supporter of Hamas – which, to Mr. Netanyahu’s fury, he has called a “liberation” movement battling Israeli “genocide” – Mr. Erdoğan played a critical role in persuading the group to free its Israeli hostages and make this week’s ceasefire deal possible.
Now, he is likely to prove equally indispensable in securing the one condition without which a lasting ceasefire, and a broader path toward stability and peace, will almost surely be impossible: law and order in Gaza.
The Trump peace plan envisions a new arrangement that would take Hamas gunmen and execution squads off the streets, replacing them with non-Hamas Palestinian police units and an “international stabilization force,” or ISF, made up of foreign troops.
Mr. Trump suggested this week that his negotiators had accepted that, for a certain period, Hamas would police the parts of Gaza no longer occupied by the Israeli army. He also appeared to turn a blind eye to Hamas “retribution” attacks on rival armed groups.
But he also sold the peace plan to Mr. Netanyahu by promising that Hamas would be disarmed and barred from a future role in Gaza’s governance.
