The drama surrounding the collapse of the Assad family’s dynastic dictatorship in Syria has obscured the single most important aspect of Bashar al-Assad’s demise.
It offers a rare chance for regional powers to build not only a new Syria but a stabler Middle East. Will they take this opportunity, or will their own national interests override efforts to make common cause?
Why We Wrote This
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria offers an opportunity to build a less combustible Middle East. Will regional leaders work together toward that goal, or will they allow their narrow national interests to prevail?
Everyone knows what is at stake. Turkey, Israel, Qatar, and the United States all have their own reasons to want a stable, inclusive new government in Damascus, focused on rebuilding Syria from the horrors of the old regime and the destruction caused by years of civil war.
All want to avoid the worst-case alternative: a resurgence of ethnic tensions, infighting among anti-Assad rebels, and the prospect of jihadist groups like the Islamic State using the situation to regroup.
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants a military hold on northern Syria and an end to the enclave held by a Kurdish militia allied with Washington. He is reportedly massing troops on the Syrian border. Israel has seized the opportunity to occupy Syrian territory in the Golan Heights area.
Donald Trump says that Syria is a “mess” and that Washington should stay out of it. But the scale of the upheaval could convince him to change his mind.
The dizzying pace of events since the collapse of Syria’s dictatorship, including daily revelations of its brutality leavened by inspiring images of celebration, has risked obscuring the single most important aspect of President Bashar al-Assad’s demise.
It has opened up a rare and unexpected opportunity for regional powers – and their most important outside ally, the United States – to help build not only a new Syria, but a stabler, less combustible Middle East.
And that has raised a question in a part of the world where opportunities have been missed more often than they have been grasped. Will regional leaders keep their eyes on that prize, and work together to try to win it?
Why We Wrote This
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria offers an opportunity to build a less combustible Middle East. Will regional leaders work together toward that goal, or will they allow their narrow national interests to prevail?
Or will their own national interests and political agendas override efforts to make common cause?
Even if they do manage to act together, a lot will have to go right inside Syria for them to succeed. Without them, the task facing Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the main rebel group that toppled the dictatorship, will be even harder.
The good news is that both Mr. Sharaa and the key outside powers – America, Turkey, Qatar, and Israel – know what’s at stake.
All have their own reasons to want a stable, inclusive new government in Damascus, focused on rebuilding Syria from the horrors of the old regime and the destruction caused by years of civil war.
All want to avoid the worst-case alternative: a resurgence of ethnic tensions, infighting among anti-Assad rebels, and the prospect of jihadist groups like the Islamic State (ISIS) using the situation to regroup.
Yet each outside power also has its own concerns.
